Imagine you’re a bird. It’s a hot day and you’re sitting on a rock. The temperature in your little body is soaring. So to cool down, a lot like a dog, you begin panting (yes, birds pant).

Trouble is, when you do this you lose water, which might be hard to come by.

How about flying up to a tree and finding some shade?

Yes, but are there trees? And will it be sufficiently cool in the branches?

Especially in hot, dry places, birds face a real risk of dehydration and a trade-off must be made between regulating body temperature and conserving water, says climate change biologist Dr Shannon Conradie.

Birds, indeed all living creatures, live in what are sometimes called thermal landscapes – where heat varies at a micro and macro level for a host of reasons, from topography to tree density.

Conradie, who provided the bird example, was speaking at a Tipping Points webinar hosted by Oppenheimer Generations Research and Conservation “OGRC”, showcasing the top three finalists for this year’s $150 000 Jennifer Ward Oppenheimer Research Grant.

She was discussing a research proposal to develop a model that could be used to predict the vulnerability of different species in different places, including their ability to reproduce, in the face of a warming world.

Conradie said that if we could map thermal landscapes and combine these with insights into the physiology and behaviour of particular species on the ground (or in the water, for that matter), then we can develop conservation and management policies and efforts to suit.

A post-doctoral research fellow at the University of Cape Town, Conradie was joined on the webinar by fellow JWO grant finalists, aquatic ecologist Dr Nompumelelo Baso and entomologist Dr Steve Baleba. This year attracted 697 proposal submissions from across 36 African countries. The grant is intended to encourage African-led research in the environmental and allied sciences, with an eye on tackling important real-world problems.

Robert Inglis, director of Jive Media Africa, who facilitated the online seminar, invited the three to talk about their proposals and what inspired them.

Conradie, who described herself as “passionate and curious about the relationship between environments and animals”, said her project would focus on defining different landscapes in sub-Saharan Africa. However, she hoped to develop and test a model that could be applied globally and to whole systems of organisms, including mammals, birds and reptiles, to better preserve biodiversity.

The model would be mathematics and physics based and draw on data gathered using remote sensing, satellite imagery and LiDAR.

Baso’s proposed project is also interested in the effects of climate change, and she too hopes to develop a predictive model. However, her focus is on the freshwater ecosystems that many Africans depend upon for food and water.

She wants to get a handle on the extent to which long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns combine with a proliferation of invasive species affect these natural systems.

Her project would seek to understand the link between climate change and alien invasions and how native species are adapting. It would also explore the role of “biological control”, including deploying natural predators, parasites and pathogens to curb invasive species.

Baso, who is a postdoctoral fellow at the South African Institute for Aquatic Biodiversity in Makhanda (formerly Grahamstown), said she was interested in how climate change and invasive species affect producers at the base of a food chain – say, bacteria, phytoplankton and algae in an aquatic system – and how this affects other levels in the chain.

“So what happens when we have an invader as the primary producer in the systems? That’s one of my questions. And then what happens when we have an increase in temperatures, an increase in rainfall events? What does that mean for the overall trophic chain in these ecosystems?” she said.

The project would draw on data collected at invaded and non-invaded sites by collaborators in a “huge study area”, that includes sites in Kenya, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and South Africa.

Baso’s team would also simulate environmental change, including temperatures and nutrient levels, in lab experiments and note any changes.

“Once we’ve done that we can then build our predictive models to help forecast how invasion by specific species will affect the trophic food webs.”

This would help managers and policy-makers “predict, and successfully manage invasions pre-emptively”, helping to protect vulnerable ecosystems and communities.

Baleba’s project is about looking after the bees, butterflies, hoverflies and other vital pollinators without whom our dinner plates would look at best decidedly dull, at worst, worryingly empty.

The International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology based academic spoke about how farmers, including in his native Kenya, are increasingly using pesticides and these contaminated soil, water and crops while devastating pollinators.

“These insects have to fertilise plant ovaries with pollen. And if this fertilisation process does not occur, we won’t have enough cucumber or tomato. Also, we won’t have enough grapes and apples,” he said. This will also have extensive impacts on our natural biodiversity. His project would seek to stem declining pollinator populations by discouraging farmers from using pesticides on their crops, while training them in natural alternatives.

Baleba said he wanted to identify degraded sites in East Africa that could be restored, including by planting indigenous flowers. At the same time, his team would help farmers in neighbouring restored sites to protect the environment while increasing their yields.

Inglis wanted to know what had set Baleba down this particular research path.

The Kenyan told how while pursuing postdoctoral work in Germany (on the effect of temperature change on insect chemical ecology) he would watch a lot of documentaries and read reviews that flagged a significant reduction in pollinators in Africa, linked to over-reliance on pesticides and habitat destruction.

Baleba said he also noticed wild flowers blooming in abundance in the German summer and with this, huge populations of pollinators, including bees.

“I thought I could go back to Africa and combine the culture of flowers and the use of biological control tools to mitigate the decline of populations of pollinators that we are having on our continent.”

He was back home in April when calls for the Jennifer Ward Oppenheimer Research Grant went out and he snapped into action.  

What outcome would he like to see if his proposal wins selection?

“To provide more arguments or information that will convince farmers to reduce their dependence on pesticides and adopt more sustainable agricultural practices,” he said.

Replying to the same question, Baso provided a tangible example from the world of aquatic biology.

Amazon frogbit, a fast-growing floating plant, was “taking over in Zimbabwe”, she said. At some point it might spread to South African waters, posing a problem here.

“My model would help us predict how the invasion by that species, or any other species, would affect our ecosystems and our native populations. If you get an invasion from a specific species, given the biology of that species, how is it going to impact our native populations? And how do we then make sure that we build resistance in our communities, be it by bio-control, be it by other means, to make sure that sensitivity is reduced to the form of invasion?”

Conradie hoped her proposed predictive mapping exercise would inform conversations with policy-makers and the public about the importance of biodiversity and prompt the development of conservation action plans to “highlight vulnerable areas”.
“This is what we know the risks are and where the risks are. And this is why we need to do something about it.” –- Roving Reporters

The winner of this year’s grant will be announced at the 13^th Oppenheimer Research Conference “ORC”, which takes place in Midrand from October 9-11.

The next Tipping Points webinar is scheduled for 26 September and will focus on indigenous knowledge systems, medicinal plants and safeguarding food systems in rural areas, with the question posed: Are we doing enough to make use of indigenous knowledge systems to secure people, planet and place?